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Working
Together . Wages
in Vermont … Who Makes What? Part 1: Annual
Wages in Vermont vs. the U.S.
Of course, over the years, there have been efforts to turn things around. There have been at least a few areas in the State where unions made some headway. Barre and Winooski stand out as two examples, though other towns like Springfield, Rutland and Burlington deserve mention, too. But the unions have been faltering and membership has been on the decline, not only here in Vermont, but all over. On the other hand, the Livable Wage movement has found a home here in Vermont, and, only recently, a Livable Wage became law in the City of Burlington. For all that, though, Vermont has pretty consistently lagged behind the U.S. average for wages, as the table below shows.
Vermont
vs. U.S. Wages: As the chart on the right shows, between 1983 and 1990, Vermont made some gains in closing the gap between the average annual wage here at home as compared to the U.S. overall. But from there, it has been a downhill slope. That kind of descent would be the envy of some Vermont ski resorts. But for Vermont's workers, it's not a pretty picture. In 1983, the average annual wage in Vermont stood at $14,469, or 83.1% of the U.S. average at the time of $17,416. By 1990, when the wage gap was at its smallest, Vermont workers pulled an average of $20,234, or 87.0% of the U.S. average of $23,258. Last year, the average annual Vermont wage stood at $28,694 -- nearly twice what it had been in 1983, representing an average annual increase of 4.12%. But that seemingly good news actually masks the fact that wages here in Vermont had continued to fall from that 1990 high in relation to U.S. wages, which had climbed to $35,305 by 2000. That put Vermont's relative wage at only 81.3% of the national average, 5.7% below the 1990 high of 87%, and 1.8% below what it had been back in 1983. In fact, in 2000 Vermont wages reached their lowest level in relation to the national average for the period, a trend which, if it isn't reversed, could mean some pretty distasteful consequences over time. A
cloudy forecast ...
Using the data to date, we calculated the yearly increases in wages for both Vermont and the U.S. From there, we ran simple linear trends to forecast the future rates of growth for each, and then applied those successive rates to the annual wages, starting from 2000. The results were a little bit gloomy, to say the least. ... Originally, we had thought to apply a growth trend to try to forecast what wages might look like down the road. But, frankly, the growth trend equation had annual increases falling off more quickly for Vermont, while the U.S. rate fell off only slightly before it rebounded. That would have yielded results that were even more dire than what we found with the simple linear trend. Looking 5 years out to 2006, the model forecasts an annual average wage in Vermont of $35,014, compared with $46,939 for the U.S. That would place Vermont annual wage at less than 75% of the national average. Looking further out -- at 10 years in 2011 -- Vermont's average wage would break the $40k level for the first time, at $40,625. But by then, that would represent only a little more than two-thirds [67.3%] of the U.S. average of $60,346. Finally, more for the sake of symmetry than anything else, we ran the forecast out as many years as the date had gone back, which puts us at 2018. By then, the model forecasts an average annual wage in Vermont of $48,718, a nearly 70% increase above the 2000 average wage. But by that point, the U.S. average is projected to stand at $87,620 ... meaning Vermont's average annual wage will have fallen to less than 56% of the national average. An uncertain future ... The pattern is not terribly obvious from the data set from 1983-2000 alone; but it is brought into sharper focus by the trend projections. As we said, Vermont had been closing the gap between wages here and those in the nation as a whole up through 1990. But by 1998, all of the gains of the previous years -- since 1983 -- had been completely erased. And the gap continues to widen from there. The projections show, then, that if the pattern continues, Vermont workers have good reason to be concerned. But that begs a question or two. ... What forces are at work in driving down Vermont wages? Is it possible to isolate them? And, if so, is it possible to do something to reverse the trend? ... In our next issue, we'll take a closer look these and other questions in Part 2 of "Wages in Vermont … Who Makes What?" lmc . ******* ******* If you would like to submit something for our Working Together section, don't hesitate to let us know. Simply e-mail us at work@downstreetmagazine.com. The e-mail should contain your name, address, and a phone number where we can reach you. You may also send a copy of your proposed article. The text can either be included in the body of the e-mail, or you can send it as an attachment in just about any word processing format. If your piece is accepted, we will pay a small honorarium for your interest & your time. [See Freelancers Wanted for more details.] ******* ******* If you would like to advertise in this section, or throughout the magazine, please visit our Advertising Info Pages ... or call, write, or e-mail ads@downstreetmagazine.com. ******* *******
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