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Learning & Education
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How Are Vermont's High School Students Doing?
   Part 2: Vermont High School Grads, Off to College? -- Page 2

For Vermont students, the opportunity exists ...
The Mortenson Research Seminar on Public Policy Analysis of Opportunity for Postsecondary Education -- a national clearinghouse of vast of amounts of data on postsecondary education and the source of the data from which we compiled most of our analysis -- has been using a measure for some years called Chance for College by Age 19. 

Chance for College by Age 19 is a simple calculation that multiples a state's graduation rate by its college continuation rate.  The result gives some indication of postsecondary educational opportunity.
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As you can see from the table below, for 1998 Vermont ranked 24th among all states on this measure of postsecondary education opportunity, with a Chance for College by Age 19 rate of 40.3%.  ... 

Unfortunately, that is down from Vermont's 1992 ranking at 12th place [45.9%].  But even though it is also below the 1986 19th place posting, the 32.6% from that year is actually below Vermont's 1998 rate.

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SOURCE:  Mortenson Research Seminar on Public Policy
Analysis of Opportunity for Postsecondary Education.  2001.

What this measure tells us is fairly straightforward:  The higher the graduation rate for high school seniors and the higher the rate for continuation on to college, the higher the rate of postsecondary opportunity.  For Vermont, with a solid 6th place finish in 1998 for the graduation rate and a correspondingly poor 42nd place finish for continuation on to college, Vermont's overall opportunity rate averages out near the mid-point.  However, precisely because Vermont has mad such a relatively strong showing with regard to graduation rates, the state itself has the opportunity to strengthen the overall opportunity for postsecondary education for its students  ... for the simple reason that they are, in fact, and unlike some other states, graduating from high school at a significantly higher rate.

Opportunity for those least able to afford it ...
Yet another measure of opportunity here has to do with how accessible postsecondary education is to those who are least able to afford it -- low income families.  Here, Vermont has made a solid showing.  ...  In 1998, Vermont ranked 3rd in the nation, posting an opportunity rate for students from low income households of 50.3%, less than 2 points behind 2nd place Rhode Island.  Connecticut -- which posted an astonishing 73.3% opportunity rate for students from low income households -- was 1st.

But Vermont's 1998 showing placed it nearly 20 points above its 1995 rate [31.4%] -- when it ranked 11th -- and more than 30 points above its 1992 rate of 17.9%, when it ranked only 26th and was more than 2 points below the national average.  Despite those numbers, for the entire period from 1992 to 1998, Vermont ranked 7th overall in postsecondary opportunity for students from low income households [35.3%].  ... 

SOURCE:  Mortenson Research Seminar on Public Policy
Analysis of Opportunity for Postsecondary Education.  2001.

Of course, opportunity for students from low income households begs the question of whether, in fact, students from households not considered low income can actually afford an education in one of Vermont's public 4-year colleges or the University.  At least a couple of things contribute to that problem.

Postsecondary opportunity in Vermont ...
The data we have seen so far tell us about Vermont's high school grads persisting on to college.  Over all, Vermont's graduation rate is solid; but its overall continuation is poor, at best.  Because of its solid graduation rate, it at least has the potential for a much better than average showing for postsecondary opportunity for its students.  But owing to its poor continuation rate, it manages to post only an average rating for actual opportunity.  Finally, starting out with a poorer than average showing on opportunity for students from low income households back in 1992, in the past decade Vermont has made significant gains in this area.

Given these facts, at least a few questions emerge:

  • With such a solid graduation rate, why do so relatively few of Vermont's high school grads continue on to college?
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  • Given the potential for postsecondary opportunities inherent in Vermont's high grad rate for its high school students, what, if anything, should be done to capitalize on it?
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  • Given the solid gains in opportunity for students from low income households, are those from households just the other side of 'low income' being kept from pursuing postsecondary education?  And if so, what is at fault?

There may be at least some inklings, if not answers.  ...

Persistence on to college in the Mortenson Research data means any college  ...  anywhere.  ...  The fact is, Vermont is somewhat notorious in this regard.

For example, back in 1996, when the State College system and the legislature had once again been engaged in one of their typical struggles over appropriations, the Mortenson team had suggested that Vermont's poor showing on college continuation might be the “apparent funding problems with high tuition/modest financial aid.”  Indeed, there is little question that Vermont's public postsecondary institutions are over-priced and under-funded.  And, taken together, this situation has exacerbated a series of problems that only seem to worsen with time. 

In its annual Report Card, the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education awarded its letter grades to the states in each of X categories -- Preparation, Participation, Affordability, Completion, and Benefits.  We took the grades on each of these criteria to come up with a Grade Point Average on a 4.0 scale for each of the states.  Vermont posted a 2.34 [C+] overall, placing it 24th of the 50 states.  With its high graduation rate, Vermont scored an A on Completion.  It also scored reasonably well for Preparation and Benefits -- with a B- in each.  However, Vermont was below a C average for Participation [C-], and scored lowest of all on Affordability with a dismal D-. 

Vermont has one of the highest rates for in-state tuition at both the State Colleges and the University.  It also, one would hope not proudly, boasts one of the lowest pay rates for faculty in a state college system.  Finally, out-of-state student enrollments in the State's public colleges and the University compete significantly with spaces for Vermont residents

Each of these factors sets up a somewhat vicious cycle when it comes to State support for public higher education.  The legislature is wont to extend the kind of funding needed to lower tuition, often citing the high rate out out-of-state enrollments.  The colleges cite the need for increased funding before they are able to bring tuition costs down.  ...  And so the story goes.  But meanwhile, Vermont's high school grads are being underserved by the very institutions that are supposed to provide them with postsecondary opportunities.

Next month, then, we'll shift our focus from the students -- their high school grad rates and college continuation rates -- to take a closer look at the State, the State College system and the University, and how they compare with the rest of the country in Vermont:  The State of Higher Education.

In the meanwhile, if you would like to review some of the current material on State standards for education, check out this month's Links to Learning & Education On-Line.

lmc

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Lou Colasanti, Editor & Laura Wisniewski, Associate Editor
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