Vol. I, No. 8: 1. Work: Changes in Patterns of the Local Job Market

Changes in Patterns of the Local Job Market
Farm Jobs Continue to Disappear, along with
Manufacturing ... Service & Retail Trade Jobs Up

For a while, it seemed like the economy was booming. Unemployment was at a low it hadn't seen in decades and employers were complaining about not being able to find enough workers. The strong job market even managed to hold up throughout the stock market plunges. But slowly, the unemployment rate is beginning to creep back up. Of course, by Fed standards, it may still be considered reasonably low. {See "Unemployment ... the 4% Solution, Vol. I, No. 2, for more details.} But in any event, the unemployment rate alone doesn't really describe the job market terribly well. ...

Using Bureau of Economic Analysis data from 1999, we thought we'd take a look at what's happened to the job market here in Addison & Chittenden counties, as well as state-wide, between 1970 and 1998, the last year for which the detailed data we found were available. ... In addition to what we lay out here, you may also want to take a look at some other sections this month that focus on the job market, viz.:

Here, however, we're primarily interested in the labor market industry by industry. ...

Looking at Job Data ...
There are any number of ways to break down the data available on numbers of jobs in different sectors. The Feds, for example, make all kinds of distinctions. But the major categories they use are Type and Industry.

The Local Job Market: 1970-1998
A look at the local job market data shows a few things some of you may already know ... all too well. But bear with us while we try to present some highlights. ...

Employment by Industry: 1970 - 1998^{Addison & Chittenden Counties and State-Wide}
AC = Addison County CC = Chittenden ST = State-Wide
	1970			1998			Gain / Loss
	AC	CC	ST	AC	CC	ST	AC	CC	ST
...Farm	1,969	1,225	12,942	1,512	731	9,424	-457	-494	-3,518
...Non-Farm	7,891	48,202	192,072	18,165	112,045	374,623	10,274	63,843	182,551
.......Private	6,377	40,779	160,568	16,134	98,694	325,101	9,757	57,915	164,533
Ag. Svcs, Forestry, fishing & other^*	111	105	994	444	1,035	5,901	333	930	4,907
Mining	1	56	1,159	49	71	785	48	15	-374
Construction	455	3,388	13,795	1,360	7,077	25,750	905	3,689	11,955
Manufacturing	1,768	10,500	41,740	2,269	15,979	52,205	501	5,479	10,465
Transportation and Public Utilities	218	2,186	9,201	581	4,870	14,616	363	2,684	5,415
Wholesale Trade	77	1,940	5,881	396	4,885	13,754	319	2,945	7,873
Retail Trade	1,235	7,155	30,321	3,210	18,510	65,375	1,975	11,355	35,054
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate	380	2,534	10,828	763	7,653	22,047	383	5,119	11,219
Services	2,132	12,915	46,649	7,062	38,614	124,668	4,930	25,699	78,019
.......Government	1,514	7,423	31,504	2,031	13,351	49,522	517	5,928	18,018
Federal, Civilian	128	1,124	3,896	134	1,694	5,478	6	570	1,582
Military	228	983	4,355	263	1,103	4,501	35	120	146
State and Local	1,158	5,316	23,253	1,634	10,554	39,543	476	5,238	16,290
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT	9,860	49,427	205,014	19,677	112,776	384,047	9,817	63,349	179,033

Farm Sector Losses ...
As we mentioned in Small Business Resources piece this month, the Farm sector was the only one which showed an out-and-out decrease in the total number of jobs between 1970 and 1998. Both Addison & Chittenden county lost nearly 500 farm jobs each, while state-wide, 3,500 farm jobs were lost. ... {See this month's On the Farm for more details about the decline in farming in the region.}

Manufacturing Sector Losses ...
There were no other industries that saw an out-and-out decrease in the raw numbers of jobs for the same period. On the other hand, while jobs in manufacturing increased in terms of raw numbers, they decreased significantly in terms of manufacturing jobs as a percentage of all jobs.

In 1970, manufacturing accounted for 12,268 jobs in Addison & Chittenden counties. By 1998, there were 18,248 jobs in the sector, an increase of 5,980 jobs, or about 49%. But in 1970, manufacturing jobs accounted for 21% of all jobs in the region, while, by 1998, that number had decreased to 14%. Thus, when compared to an overall job growth of 123% for the period, manufacturing had lost ground to the tune of some -74%.

Other Private Sector Job Losses ...
Only two other industries in the private sector experienced similar declines in the rate of job growth. Mining jobs, increased overall from 60 to 121 jobs for the period, but decreased by 26% when compared to overall growth rates. Of course, mining accounts for relatively very few jobs in the first place. Construction also an increase in the total number of jobs, from 3,843 in 1970, to 8,437 in 1998. This increase of 4,594 jobs translates into a growth rate of about 120%, or 3% below the overall rate. Construction accounts for about 6% of the total workforce.

Public Sector Job Losses ...
The public sector is another matter. ... While each of the categories for Government jobs -- Federal, Civilian ... Military ... and State & Local -- showed an increase in the total numbers of jobs [46%, 13%, and 88%, respectively], when compared with overall growth in the job market, each showed a significant decrease [-77%, -110%, and -35%].

Where were the gains?
In terms of the individual vs. the aggregate categories, the greatest increase came in Services, with increases of 4,930 jobs in Addison County, 25,699 in Chittenden County, and 78,019 state-wide. For Chittenden County, this increase represents more than 40% of the total increase for all jobs, while state-wide, additional Service sector jobs account for more than 43% of the increase. But here in Addison County, Service sector jobs made up more than half of the total increase in jobs. ... The next greatest increase came in Retail Trade, with 1,975 additional jobs in Addison County [20% of all additional jobs], another 11,355 in Chittenden [18%], and 35,054 state-wide [20%].

Needless to say, many of the jobs in the Service & Retail Trade sectors do not pay as much as jobs in manufacturing, or even construction. ...

Of course, stats like these tell us something else, also -- that a look at the raw numbers alone can't provide a clear picture of the job market. For that, we invite you to jump to this month's The Visual Market.

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